16 Oct 2026 · Kikai caldera & southern Kyushu, Japan
How Jomon Japan coped with the Kikai-Akahoya super-eruption
Enrico Crema and colleagues used statistical models of radiocarbon and site data to track Jomon forager populations around the Kikai-Akahoya eruption about 7,300 years ago, one of the largest of the Holocene (VEI 7). They find a major population collapse in regions next to the volcano, but some nearby populations grew after the disaster, and some distant communities were hit by environmental effects that had been overlooked.
Why it matters: It tests the long-held idea that the eruption was an “apocalyptic” turning point in Japanese prehistory, a classic case in debates about catastrophes and the fate of ancient cultures.
Mainstream view: The authors argue the outcome was contingent and varied by region rather than a single collapse, and call for more research on how societies absorb sudden shocks.
